The 143rd Kentucky Derby is May 6th at Churchill Downs in Kentucky and a 70% chance of rain is in the forecast. Finding a good mudder in this group of 20 is nearly impossible. We thank Mike Battaglia, the odds maker at Churchill Downs, for giving us a morning line favorite at 4-1, Classic Empire, but come race day his odds will plummet from that enticing 4-1.
Mudders with potential:
PRESTON INNOVATIONS XS 66CM TELESCOPIC LEGS - NEWClassic Empire (4-1): Broke his maiden on a wet surface at Churchill Downs in 2016. Veteran rider Julien Leparoux has been aboard for all of Classic Empire’s starts.
Tapwrit (20-1): Also broke his maiden over a wet surface. My concern with Tapwrit is that his head is not in the game. He’s worth at look in a superfecta at this price and on Derby Day.
Big Horn 16 Barrel Racer Leather Saddle Full Quarter Horse Bars A01611 NEWU-Q-14 14 HILASON CLASSIC SERIES TREELESS WESTERN TRAIL BARREL RACING LEATHER SGormley (15-1): Also has a win on a wet surface in California, but a wet surface in Southern California is very different than a wet surface in Kentucky. The only advantage for Gormley is his veteran jockey, Victor Espinoza. Gormley races well in California but the ship to Kentucky is a mystery.
Battle of Midway (30-1): Another California shipper who broke his maiden on a wet Santa Anita surface. Finished second behind Gormley in the Santa Anita Derby, has always been in the money in all of his four races. In a very scattered Derby, this horse deserves a look, especially at this price.
The Real Deals:
Classic Empire has been on my radar (and everyone else’s) 16 Johnny Scott Ranch Roping Saddle (Made in Texas)since he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He’s kind of a sassy horse. He’s been known to train when he feels like it, but certainly shows up for the race. With his veteran jockey, consistent money finishes on his resume, and can run on a wet surface, Classic Empire lands on the top of my list. Besides all that, he’s American Pharaoh’s little brother. So the pedigree is perfect.
BONNARD PLASTIC FLY BOX WITH MAGNETIC STRIPS + COLLECTION VINTAGE SALMON FLIESEliteflies 30 Chain eye Cats Whisker lure box fly fishing flies viva Flexi
McCracken (5-1): McCracken finished third in his last race behind Practical Joke and Irap in the Bluegrass, but again, he didn’t need to win because he was already in with his win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. Until the Bluegrass, McCracken was undefeated, and veteran jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. has been with him from the first race.3363 - CASCO EQUITAZIONE KASK SWAROVSKI FRAME su DOGMA CHROME LIGHT
Filling out the Superfecta:
Always Dreaming (5-1): Three wins in a row for Always Dreaming since veteran jock Johnny Velazquez took over, but only one graded stakes win, the Florida Derby, which he needed to get to Churchill Downs. A veteran rider, but little graded stakes experience and no races on a wet track. However, he’s been training well at Churchill and has put in some impressive bullet works since he arrived.
Delkim NiteLite Pro Illuminating Hanger - Red Indication FishingNEW Delkim Carp Fishing Nite Lite Pro Illuminating Hanger - White - DP051NEW 2018 Dragon Millenium HD FD FD620i-FD635i Spinning reel
Thunder Snow (20-1):17 Circle S Roping Saddle W Basket Weave and Floral Tooling Roping Warranty This is the European entry. Entering the gates as a multiple graded stakes winner in Europe with extremely impressing speed figures, but has no American racing experience and has ran most of his races at sprint distances. The check mark on this horse goes to the connections and that the fields in Europe are bigger than they are here. The UAE Derby, which Thunder Snow won, had 15 entries. He will not be shy of the 20 in the gate.
State of Honor (30-1): I wanted to make this horse my superfecta filler, but he has one knock: His jockey, Jose Lezcano. Julien Leparoux has been on State of Honor for his last four races, which were stakes races, and in which State of Honor finished on the board all four times. But, Leparoux is also the jockey for Classic Empire. (What a choice?) This Mark Casse trainee gets a definite look and will be taking superfecta money come post time.
Practical Joke (20-1) was doing fine until he got into races with the other Derby contenders then he couldn’t seem to get around Gunnevera, Classic Empire or Irap. He has no wet surface races, doesn’t like the distance or the crowds.
- Waterproof Infrared IR Monocular Night Vision Helmet Telescope Device 100m LCD
- Fuseaux women Pwrshape Tight Rihanna Puma
- L@@K B&G Zeus3 9 Multifunction Display w Insight Chart [000-13242-001] 000-13
- Abu Garcia sea bass rod spinning Salty stage SEA BASS STSS-862ML-KR From Japan
- BTRDL4000FB Mulinello Shimano Baitrunner DL 4000 FD Feeder RN
- Ridgemonkey VRH150 USB Rechargable Head Torch
- ANDY HAMILTON VINTAGE RARE HAND TOOLED WESTERN CHAPS ANTELOPE SKIN - EXCELLENT
- BETA Life Pharmaquin Joint Complete Ha - 1kg - Joints & Soundness
- SHIRES WARMARUG THERMAL SYSTEM 100G RUG LINER STABLE
- Hauptner Fine Clipper blades HAUPTNER HORSE CLIPPER BLADE SET
- Table Tennis GEWO Style Trolley Bag (M) BK OR