The 143rd Kentucky Derby is May 6th at Churchill Downs in Kentucky and a 70% chance of rain is in the forecast. Finding a good mudder in this group of 20 is nearly impossible. We thank Mike Battaglia, the odds maker at Churchill Downs, for giving us a morning line favorite at 4-1, Classic Empire, but come race day his odds will plummet from that enticing 4-1.
Mudders with potential:
Jaguar By Harry Dabbs Dressage Saddle 17.5 MWClassic Empire (4-1): Broke his maiden on a wet surface at Churchill Downs in 2016. Veteran rider Julien Leparoux has been aboard for all of Classic Empire’s starts.
Tapwrit (20-1): Also broke his maiden over a wet surface. My concern with Tapwrit is that his head is not in the game. He’s worth at look in a superfecta at this price and on Derby Day.
U-O-16 16 Western Horse Saddle American Leather Treeless Trail Pleasure HilasonU-B-14 14 HILASON TREELESS WESTERN TRAIL BARREL RACING LEATHER HORSE SADDLEGormley (15-1): Also has a win on a wet surface in California, but a wet surface in Southern California is very different than a wet surface in Kentucky. The only advantage for Gormley is his veteran jockey, Victor Espinoza. Gormley races well in California but the ship to Kentucky is a mystery.
Battle of Midway (30-1): Another California shipper who broke his maiden on a wet Santa Anita surface. Finished second behind Gormley in the Santa Anita Derby, has always been in the money in all of his four races. In a very scattered Derby, this horse deserves a look, especially at this price.
The Real Deals:
Classic Empire has been on my radar (and everyone else’s) GPA Reithelm Speed Air 2X Das beliebten Speed Air Modell F. black Gr. 57since he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He’s kind of a sassy horse. He’s been known to train when he feels like it, but certainly shows up for the race. With his veteran jockey, consistent money finishes on his resume, and can run on a wet surface, Classic Empire lands on the top of my list. Besides all that, he’s American Pharaoh’s little brother. So the pedigree is perfect.
KENT AND MASTERS BROWN 17 INCH JUMP SADDLE. ADJUSTABLE GULLETSolutions Ansur Treeless Dressage saddle - Brown - Excellent condition - Size 4
McCracken (5-1): McCracken finished third in his last race behind Practical Joke and Irap in the Bluegrass, but again, he didn’t need to win because he was already in with his win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. Until the Bluegrass, McCracken was undefeated, and veteran jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. has been with him from the first race.C-1-14 14 Western Horse Saddle Leather Flex Trail Barrel Racing Hilason T200 TA
Filling out the Superfecta:
Always Dreaming (5-1): Three wins in a row for Always Dreaming since veteran jock Johnny Velazquez took over, but only one graded stakes win, the Florida Derby, which he needed to get to Churchill Downs. A veteran rider, but little graded stakes experience and no races on a wet track. However, he’s been training well at Churchill and has put in some impressive bullet works since he arrived.
Keiffer Dressage Saddle - medium fitEx Display Harlow Stable RangeIdeal Suzannah Dressage Saddle 17.5 MW In V. Good Condition
Thunder Snow (20-1):C-A-16 16 HILASON WESTERN LEATHER BARREL RACING TRAIL PLEASURE HORSE SADDLE TAC This is the European entry. Entering the gates as a multiple graded stakes winner in Europe with extremely impressing speed figures, but has no American racing experience and has ran most of his races at sprint distances. The check mark on this horse goes to the connections and that the fields in Europe are bigger than they are here. The UAE Derby, which Thunder Snow won, had 15 entries. He will not be shy of the 20 in the gate.
State of Honor (30-1): I wanted to make this horse my superfecta filler, but he has one knock: His jockey, Jose Lezcano. Julien Leparoux has been on State of Honor for his last four races, which were stakes races, and in which State of Honor finished on the board all four times. But, Leparoux is also the jockey for Classic Empire. (What a choice?) This Mark Casse trainee gets a definite look and will be taking superfecta money come post time.
Practical Joke (20-1) was doing fine until he got into races with the other Derby contenders then he couldn’t seem to get around Gunnevera, Classic Empire or Irap. He has no wet surface races, doesn’t like the distance or the crowds.
- LADIES MUSTO fleece lined SPORTING GILET size 12
- CEP - CALF SLEEVE 2.0, run compression calf sleeves for men
- Daiwa Spinning Kouga Tenya AGS ML-235SMT Fishing Pole From Japan
- Shimano 15 Stradic 2500HGS Spinning Reel 4969363034113
- 3K Geflecht Carbon Karpfenrute AVID CARP EXODUS 12FT (3,6m) 3,5LB Carp Rod
- Munch Baits Bio Marine 5kg Boilies Baits ALL SIZES
- C-M-16 16 Western Horse Saddle Leather Wade Ranch Roping Mahogany By Hilason D0
- C-HRSE HORSE CENTAUR CLASSIC DRESSAGE RIGID PredECTION PLATES BOOTS- SET OF 4 WH
- Reins - Single Ply Bridle Leather (7'+ x 5 8 - Show Harness Leather)
- Harry's Horse Gamaschen Neon Reflex innen stoßdämpfendes Neopren Klettverschluss
- REV Changer Premium GRAPHIC COBRA RIGHT Hand Bowling Wrist Support Accessory_NU