The 143rd Kentucky Derby is May 6th at Churchill Downs in Kentucky and a 70% chance of rain is in the forecast. Finding a good mudder in this group of 20 is nearly impossible. We thank Mike Battaglia, the odds maker at Churchill Downs, for giving us a morning line favorite at 4-1, Classic Empire, but come race day his odds will plummet from that enticing 4-1.
Mudders with potential:
ASICS GT-1000 7 MID GREY FLASH CORALClassic Empire (4-1): Broke his maiden on a wet surface at Churchill Downs in 2016. Veteran rider Julien Leparoux has been aboard for all of Classic Empire’s starts.
Tapwrit (20-1): Also broke his maiden over a wet surface. My concern with Tapwrit is that his head is not in the game. He’s worth at look in a superfecta at this price and on Derby Day.
Garmin Forerunner 610 Touchscreen GPS Watch, Multicolor (CL500)Polar Vantage M GPS Watch White Small MediumGormley (15-1): Also has a win on a wet surface in California, but a wet surface in Southern California is very different than a wet surface in Kentucky. The only advantage for Gormley is his veteran jockey, Victor Espinoza. Gormley races well in California but the ship to Kentucky is a mystery.
Battle of Midway (30-1): Another California shipper who broke his maiden on a wet Santa Anita surface. Finished second behind Gormley in the Santa Anita Derby, has always been in the money in all of his four races. In a very scattered Derby, this horse deserves a look, especially at this price.
The Real Deals:
Classic Empire has been on my radar (and everyone else’s) Polar M200 goldlogio GPS con Cardiofrequenzimetro Integrato, Monitoraggio Attivitsince he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He’s kind of a sassy horse. He’s been known to train when he feels like it, but certainly shows up for the race. With his veteran jockey, consistent money finishes on his resume, and can run on a wet surface, Classic Empire lands on the top of my list. Besides all that, he’s American Pharaoh’s little brother. So the pedigree is perfect.
Mizuno Wave Prodigy 2 TG 42 SCARPA DA CORSA men RUNNING MIZUNO TOP MARATONAMizuno Running shoes Wave Emperor Japan 3 J1ga1875 White Red Us826cm
McCracken (5-1): McCracken finished third in his last race behind Practical Joke and Irap in the Bluegrass, but again, he didn’t need to win because he was already in with his win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. Until the Bluegrass, McCracken was undefeated, and veteran jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. has been with him from the first race.Smartwatch Garmin Vivomove HR Sport gold pink Bianco Silicone Cardio 010-01850-02
Filling out the Superfecta:
Always Dreaming (5-1): Three wins in a row for Always Dreaming since veteran jock Johnny Velazquez took over, but only one graded stakes win, the Florida Derby, which he needed to get to Churchill Downs. A veteran rider, but little graded stakes experience and no races on a wet track. However, he’s been training well at Churchill and has put in some impressive bullet works since he arrived.
New Balance Fresh Foam Zante V3 men Running shoes Nere Scarpa Corsa MZANTBK3New Balance 880 v8 Mens 2E (WIDE) HIGH CUSHIONING 10MM DROP Road Running shoesReebok Women's Walk Ultra 6 DMX Max Gymnastics shoes 6 UK
Thunder Snow (20-1):Garmin fenix 5 Plus Sapphire - Titanium with Solar Flare orange Band This is the European entry. Entering the gates as a multiple graded stakes winner in Europe with extremely impressing speed figures, but has no American racing experience and has ran most of his races at sprint distances. The check mark on this horse goes to the connections and that the fields in Europe are bigger than they are here. The UAE Derby, which Thunder Snow won, had 15 entries. He will not be shy of the 20 in the gate.
State of Honor (30-1): I wanted to make this horse my superfecta filler, but he has one knock: His jockey, Jose Lezcano. Julien Leparoux has been on State of Honor for his last four races, which were stakes races, and in which State of Honor finished on the board all four times. But, Leparoux is also the jockey for Classic Empire. (What a choice?) This Mark Casse trainee gets a definite look and will be taking superfecta money come post time.
Practical Joke (20-1) was doing fine until he got into races with the other Derby contenders then he couldn’t seem to get around Gunnevera, Classic Empire or Irap. He has no wet surface races, doesn’t like the distance or the crowds.
- 5 16 x 620 ft. spool of Hollow Braid Polypropylene Rope. White.
- ARENA - ACCAPPATOIO SPUGNA JUNIOR - ZODIACO YOUTH - 5009772 - ROYAL METALLIC GRE
- 2019 NWT MENS ROME TEAM SNOWBOARD MITT L Canvas Micro fleece Lining
- LO3 82 regulator Apeks XTX50 OMS BCD RD COMPUTER AQUALUNG I750 OLED TRANSMITTER
- Marine Narrow 4 Step Folding Ladder Stainless Steel 316 Grade Boarding Ladder
- OUTSTRONG Outdoorhut Freizeithut mit 2-farbigen Lederband Hut anthrazit
- HARRY HALL AW17 BELT HAVANNAH LEATHER WOMENS TAN - MEDIUM - HHL0006
- Adidas SN SS TEE M CE5815 XL T-Shirt
- Shimano 17 Exsence DC XG Left Hand Saltwater Sea Bass Baitcasting Reel 037367
- Tailwalk SALTYSHAPE DASH JIGGING S59 130 Spinning Rod
- Instrument Quality Powerful zoom 8x-24x50 Binoculars 08
- Korda 4th Dimension Polarised Sunglasses Avi Tortoise Frame Brown Lens K4D04
- RJ Classics Soft Shell Tri Moldel Men's Show Coat with Moisture Control
- C-L-84 84 HILASON 1200D WINTER WATERPROOF HORSE BLANKET BELLY WRAP FIREWORKS PR
- Peanut Flexi 3 Ring Continental Bit
- Weatherbeeta Lite Open Front Boots